Australia is an energy-rich nation.
Let that sink in.
We export vast quantities of coal, gas, and raw resources to power the world. We should be one of the most energy-secure countries on the planet.
Instead, we are staring down the barrel of fuel shortages… price spikes… and even the possibility of rationing.
How did we get here?
A Nation That Can’t Fuel Itself
Over the past two decades, successive governments—of all political stripes—have quietly dismantled Australia’s fuel security.
We now have just two remaining oil refineries
We rely heavily on imported refined fuel
We maintain a so-called 90-day strategic reserve
Sounds reassuring—until you look closer.
Only around 30 days of that supply is actually held on Australian soil.
The rest?
Stored offshore. Out of reach. Dependent on shipping lanes that may not exist in a crisis.
In other words, our “reserve” is largely theoretical.
The Illusion of Security
This is the kind of policy that looks good in a report… and collapses in the real world.
Because when conflict erupts—as it has now—everything changes:
Shipping routes become contested
Insurance costs skyrocket
Tankers are diverted or delayed
Governments hesitate to release offshore stock
And suddenly, that comforting “90-day reserve” starts to look like fiction.
What we’re left with is a fragile, just-in-time fuel system in an increasingly unstable world.
The Reality Hits Home
Australians are already feeling the consequences.
Petrol prices climbing sharply at the bowser
Diesel supplies tightening—the lifeblood of freight and agriculture
Quiet discussions about rationing scenarios
Let’s be clear: diesel isn’t optional.
It moves trucks. It powers farms. It keeps supermarket shelves stocked.
If diesel supply falters, it’s not just an inconvenience—it’s a national vulnerability.
A Government Hoping for the Best
In response to looming shortages, the government has begun releasing parts of the emergency reserve.
That’s not a solution.
That’s a stopgap.
A gamble.
A quiet admission that we are dangerously exposed and now reliant on one thing above all else:
That the war doesn’t last too long.
Hope is not an energy policy.
Twenty Years of Strategic Neglect
This crisis didn’t appear overnight.
It is the result of two decades of policy failure:
Allowing domestic refining capacity to collapse
Failing to build meaningful onshore reserves
Outsourcing fuel security to global markets
Assuming supply chains would always function
That last assumption now looks spectacularly naïve.
In a more volatile world, resilience matters more than efficiency.
And we chose efficiency.
What Must Change — Urgently
If this crisis doesn’t trigger a rethink, nothing will.
Australia needs a serious, immediate course correction:
1. Build Real, Onshore Strategic Reserves
Not paper reserves. Not offshore stockpiles.
Physical fuel storage on Australian soil—measured in months, not weeks.
2. Restore Domestic Refining Capacity
Two refineries is not a strategy.
It’s a vulnerability.
Government should actively support and incentivise new or expanded refining capability.
3. Mandate Minimum Fuel Stocks for Industry
Critical sectors—freight, agriculture, defence—must maintain minimum reserves.
No more running on fumes.
4. Diversify Supply Chains
Over-reliance on a narrow set of suppliers is a strategic risk.
We need broader sourcing and stronger bilateral fuel agreements.
5. Treat Energy Security as National Security
Because it is.
Fuel is not just an economic input—it is the foundation of modern life.
The Bottom Line
Australia is not short of energy.
We are short of foresight.
We allowed ideology, complacency, and short-term thinking to erode something fundamental: our ability to keep the country running in a crisis.
Now the cracks are showing.
The only question is whether we learn from this—or repeat it.
Because the next crisis may not give us even 30 days.
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