We sit on vast reserves of oil, gas, and the raw materials needed to power a modern economy. We export energy to the world. We should be one of the most secure nations on the planet.
Instead, we are frighteningly exposed.
This didn’t happen overnight. It is the result of years—decades—of complacency, ideological drift, and a complete failure of strategic thinking.
And now, when circumstances are changing rapidly, our leaders seem incapable of reacting with urgency.
From Energy Powerhouse to Strategic Liability
We have shut down most of our oil refineries.
We now import a large proportion of our refined fuel—petrol, diesel, aviation fuel—from overseas, much of it processed in places like Singapore.
Our so-called “strategic reserve”?
About 90 days.
But here’s the kicker: only around 30 days is actually held on Australian soil.
The rest? Offshore. Out of reach if global supply chains are disrupted.
We are an island nation that cannot fuel itself.
Let that sink in.
And It Gets Worse: Fertiliser and Food Security
This isn’t just about fuel.
Diesel powers transport, agriculture, mining—everything.
Urea (used for fertiliser and diesel exhaust systems) is critical for food production and logistics.
Disrupt either, and you don’t just get higher prices.
You get empty shelves.
Yet we remain dangerously dependent on imports for both.
The Scenario No One Wants to Face
Let’s stop pretending everything will be fine.
If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for an extended period—say six months—the consequences for Australia would be severe.
Fuel imports constrained
Prices skyrocketing
Supply chains strained or broken
Agricultural output impacted
Food supply under pressure
This is not a fringe scenario. It is a plausible one.
And yet, where is the urgency?
A Government Frozen in Place
The current government talks. It reassures. It hopes.
But hope is not a strategy.
We are in a situation that demands decisive action now—not after the crisis hits, not after the shelves empty, not after industry grinds to a halt.
Leadership means acting before the worst happens.
Not explaining it afterwards.
What Should Be Done — Now
If this situation persists, we cannot muddle through. We need immediate, practical decisions.
1. Maximise Domestic Refining Capacity
Ensure the remaining refineries operate at full capacity, 24/7 if necessary.
2. Reassess Closed Refineries
Conduct an urgent review of shuttered facilities.
If any can be recommissioned—even partially—start now.
3. Prioritise Domestic Supply of Crude
We export crude oil. That must be reconsidered in a crisis.
If contracts must be honoured, renegotiate—tie exports to guaranteed refined fuel imports.
4. Accelerate Alternative Fuel Production
Fast-track biofuels and gas-to-liquid options using domestic resources.
5. Diversify Supply Chains
Actively secure alternative refining partners and supply routes outside vulnerable choke points.
6. Prepare for Fuel Rationing
No one wants it. But pretending it won’t be needed is irresponsible.
Prioritise essential services: agriculture, freight, emergency services.
The Real Failure: Strategic Thinking
This crisis did not begin with war.
It began when we decided that efficiency mattered more than resilience.
That global supply chains would always work.
That someone else would always supply what we needed.
That was a fantasy.
Now we are seeing the consequences.
Time to Lead — Not Hedge
This is the moment for leadership.
Yes, tough decisions will be unpopular.
Yes, they may cost votes.
But that is the job.
To protect the nation.
To ensure continuity of supply.
To safeguard food and energy security.
Stop pretending there is no problem.
Stop hoping it will resolve itself.
Make the decisions.
Act now.
Before we are forced to act too late.
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