Appeasement leads to escalation

For too many months we have seen repeated demonstrations claiming support for innocent Palestinians in Gaza, while screaming anti-Semitic and genocidal slogans. The protests are not 'peaceful' and 'non-violent' as sometimes reported. Too often, masked demonstrators take over the streets and any bystanders are intimidated. Many, especially those who are Jewish are assaulted. If you carry a sign supporting Israel you are in danger. 

The police have generally tried a hands-off approach, hoping that the demonstrators will dissipate their aggression without violence. They have gone out of their way to remove any possible trigger by asking Israel supporters to move on and even resorting to arresting them. 

Look at this video highlighting the experience of an independent reporter attending one of the demonstrations. The video covers the whole saga, showing the attempt by the Police to ignore the assault but having to act once the assault was given sufficient publicity.

However, appeasement has not worked. The demonstrations have become increasingly confrontational and violent. This is exemplified by the most recent violent scenes in Melbourne where some 25,000 protestors clashed with police. 

"Thousands of anti-war protesters clashed with police outside the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, disrupting the Land Forces International Defence Expo. The demonstration, one of Melbourne's largest in decades, saw protesters throw projectiles and manure at police, who responded with pepper spray and batons. Over 25,000 demonstrators rallied against the weapons expo, with tensions escalating as officers on horseback attempted to control the crowd. Traffic chaos ensued, and several protesters were arrested. " The Australian, Sep 11 2024

Appeasement does not work! Ask Neville Chamberlain. Appeasement only leads to escalation.

What should the police do? Simply enforce the law, without fear or favour. That's all!

China announces first commercial Thorium Molten Salt Reactor!

Well it seems to be happening! China is commissioning the world's first commercial Thorium Molten Salt Reactor.

For a few years, I have been posting on Thorium and its potential for virtually unlimited, clean safe, low-waste nuclear energy. 

(See the following few posts ;-

• What the Heck is Thorium?
• Thorium Nuclear update
• Safe nuclear passes first hurdle
• Will Thorium be the magic bullet?)

Commercial Thorium nuclear is potentially a world changer, not only providing abundant energy, but also saving us from the environmental damage of the renewables obsession driving many Western democracies. Wind and Solar while ostensibly a low emission technology come with a lot of baggage. Their low energy density and intermittency necessitate extensive use of land, prime farming or pristine natural, and expensive storage. Added to this the limited lifetimes of both solar panels and wind turbines requires large scale recycling and the construction of panels and turbines uses many scarce resources placing further burdens on the planet. It is saving the environment from carbon emissions by destroying the environment with mining.

Given the successful operation of an experimental molten salt reactor design at Oak Ridge in the late 1960 s, it has taken 60 years to this recent announcement, So it is no overnight success. And of course, we still have another 4 years or so to wait for its completion. But China's announcement comes after a successful trial so we have some confidence that it will happen.

The announcement is covered in the video titled "It's Happening - China Launches World's First Thorium Nuclear Reactor

Hooray!

 

https://youtu.be/t4EJQPWjFj8?si=kEYU0XPu7B8Wnkyt

What about Sudan?

Amid the global cacophony surrounding the conflict between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, a silent catastrophe unfolds in Sudan. The famine currently threatening the lives of 2.5 million Sudanese has received a fraction of the attention that the Gaza conflict has garnered. This disparity in media coverage and public outcry raises critical questions about our collective priorities and the value we place on human lives.

The Stark Contrast

The death toll in Gaza, while significant, pales in comparison to the humanitarian disaster in Sudan. In Gaza, the conflict has resulted in thousands of civilian casualties, a tragic consequence of a war initiated by Hamas. These deaths, though devastating, are largely unintentional and a result of the ongoing military operations. In contrast, the famine in Sudan is a direct result of political actors stealing food and resources, leading to a preventable crisis where people are dying from starvation.

No Famine in Gaza, But One in Sudan

While Gaza faces severe hardships due to the conflict, it does not suffer from famine. The situation in Sudan, however, is dire. The famine has reached catastrophic levels, with millions facing acute food insecurity. The lack of food is not due to natural causes but is exacerbated by the actions of warring factions who prioritize their power struggles over the lives of civilians. This stark difference highlights the severity of the crisis in Sudan, which is being overshadowed by the more politically charged conflict in Gaza.

Silence on Sudan

Despite the grave situation in Sudan, there is a deafening silence from the international community and media. The famine, which is claiming lives daily, has not sparked the same level of outrage or mobilization as the Gaza conflict. In Western cities, there are widespread demonstrations and vocal condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Yet, the plight of the Sudanese people, who are dying from hunger, goes largely unnoticed. This discrepancy in attention and action is troubling and calls into question the consistency of our humanitarian values.

The Question of Black Lives

The global movement for racial justice, epitomized by the slogan “Black Lives Matter,” demands that we confront systemic inequalities and value all human lives equally. However, the relative silence on the Sudanese famine suggests a troubling inconsistency. If black lives truly matter, why are the deaths of Sudanese people being ignored? The lack of attention to Sudan’s crisis reflects a broader issue of selective empathy and the need for a more equitable approach to humanitarian crises.

Why is Sudan being ignored?

The famine in Sudan is a humanitarian disaster that deserves immediate and sustained attention. While the conflict in Gaza is undoubtedly tragic and complex, it should not overshadow the even more urgent crisis in Sudan. The international community, media, and public must recognize the severity of the famine and mobilize resources and support to save lives. By doing so, we can begin to address the imbalance in our responses to global crises and reaffirm our commitment to valuing all human lives equally.

Mythbusting Energy claims

With the increasingly shrill debate on nuclear energy in Australia, there is no shortage of articles espousing the different views. Unfortunately, most of those supporting the government's claims that Nuclear is the most expensive source of energy base their arguments on official reports from the CSIRO and the AEMO. Both of these organisations have submitted reports that support the government's position. Given that both the CSIRO and AEMO are well-respected organisations, it should be enough for the government to win the case. But not so. 

The opposition under Peter Dutton has made nuclear energy the foundation of the Coalition's low-emission policy. This change in energy policy for the coalition came rather late in the electoral cycle, with an election due in the next 12 months, and after the Labor government has committed significant resources to an extremely expensive rapid decarbonisation based on renewables, wind and solar.

So we have the battle lines. Labor is supported by the institutions of government, and most of the media, because it is a left-of-centre government, and the many vested interests in business, who have either already received significant renewable energy contracts or expect to do so.

On the pro-nuclear side, we have the coalition, and a small but vocal pro-nuclear lobby, and the experience of the world in its use of nuclear energy demonstrating safety, reliability and lower consumer costs, but also with some negatives due to long and expensive construction times.

The coalition's case is helped by the facile attempts by the CSIRO and the AEMO biasing their reports pro-renewables. Professional analysis of the reports has exposed multiple fallacious assumptions which if corrected would reverse the pro-renewables conclusion. 

I have posted on this before. See Why is the CSIRO lying to us? and Is the AEMO also lying to us?

Most recently I came across a paper by Robert Idel titled "The Levelised Full Cost of Electricity"

This is an important paper as it provides a robust basis for comparing the full cost of various sources of electricity generation. In doing so it highlights the problems with the CSIRO and AEMO reports and it provides real-world calculation showing that the Levelized Full Cost of Electricity for Renewables, Wind and Solar, is substantially greater, not less, but greater than gas, coal, and nuclear. The table below, reproduced from the paper, shows the results of the calculation for two locations Germany and Texas, and shows that the cost of Wind+Solar is either double (Texas) or quadruple (Germany) the cost of Nuclear.

If I can borrow from the Mythbusters, Chris Bowen's claim that "Nuclear is the most expensive form of electricity generation" is BUSTED!

The Hidden Costs of Renewable Energy

Rising Energy costs in many countries following widespread policies to rapidly decarbonise their economies have ignited a closer look at the real cost of low-carbon generation technologies. 

In Australia, the debate has gained greater intensity following the Coalition opposition parties declaring their policy to include nuclear power in the energy mix. This is a direct denial of the Labor government's anti-nuclear stance. With a federal election now due in less than 12 months, the debate is in full swing. Into this debate the IPA (the Institute of Public Affairs) has lobbed a detailed report by Professor Stephen Wilson titled “The Ruinous Cost Of Free Energy: Why An Electricity System Built On Renewables Is The Most Expensive Of All Options” The report presents a direct challenge to the Labor governments oft-repeated claims that renewables is the cheapest form of energy and nuclear is the most expensive. It is well worth reading the full report, but here are the key points of his analysis.

Historical Context: From Low to High Electricity Prices

Australia once enjoyed some of the lowest electricity prices in the industrialized world. This was largely due to its reliance on baseload generation, primarily from coal. However, the shift towards renewable energy has led to a dramatic increase in electricity costs. Today, Australia has some of the highest electricity prices globally.

The Concept of Total System Cost

Wilson emphasizes the importance of considering the Total System Cost when evaluating energy systems. This concept goes beyond the simple cost of generating electricity and includes all associated expenses, such as infrastructure, storage, and transmission². According to Wilson, a system based on renewable energy sources like wind and solar is significantly more expensive than one based on baseload generation, such as coal or nuclear power.

Infrastructure Investments

One of the primary reasons for the high cost of renewable energy systems is the substantial infrastructure investments required. Wind and solar power generation necessitates extensive infrastructure, including storage facilities and transmission networks. These investments are essential to manage the variability of renewable energy sources and ensure a stable supply of electricity.

The Challenge of Variability

Renewable energy sources are inherently variable. The sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow. This variability poses a significant challenge for maintaining a stable electricity supply. To balance the grid, additional costs are incurred to manage these fluctuations. This often involves using backup power sources, such as gas turbines, which can quickly ramp up production when renewable output drops.

Impact on Consumers

Ultimately, the higher costs associated with renewable energy systems are passed on to consumers. Wilson argues that the increased infrastructure, storage, and grid balancing expenses result in higher electricity bills for households and businesses. This contradicts the common perception that renewable energy is a cheaper alternative.

Comparing Costs: Renewable vs. Baseload Systems

Wilson provides a stark comparison between the costs of renewable and baseload energy systems. He estimates that a renewables-based system could be two to three times more expensive than a baseload system. Furthermore, a ‘renewables only’ system could be five to six times more expensive. These figures highlight the significant financial burden that a transition to renewable energy could impose on society.

The Myth of Free Energy

The term “free energy” is often used to describe renewable energy sources. However, Wilson argues that this is a misleading concept. While the sun and wind are free, the process of converting these natural resources into usable electricity is far from cost-free. The infrastructure, maintenance, and grid management required to support renewable energy systems come with substantial expenses.

The Role of Government Policies

Government policies play a crucial role in shaping the energy landscape. Subsidies and incentives for renewable energy have driven significant investment in wind and solar power. However, Wilson suggests that these policies may not always consider the full economic impact. By focusing on the apparent benefits of renewable energy, policymakers might overlook the hidden costs that consumers ultimately bear.

The Need for a Balanced Approach

Wilson’s analysis underscores the need for a balanced approach to energy policy. While renewable energy has its merits, it should not be pursued at the expense of economic stability. A diversified energy mix that includes baseload generation can provide a more reliable and cost-effective solution. This approach ensures that the benefits of renewable energy are harnessed without imposing undue financial burdens on consumers.

Conclusion: Rethinking Renewable Energy

Stephen Wilson’s article challenges the prevailing narrative that renewable energy is the most cost-effective solution for the future. By highlighting the hidden costs and complexities associated with renewable energy systems, he calls for a more nuanced understanding of the energy landscape. As we move towards a sustainable future, it is essential to consider the full economic impact of our energy choices and strive for a balanced and pragmatic approach.