We are watching a very public dance of threats, retaliation, diplomatic hints, leaked optimism and supposed deals that are always just a few days away. President Trump insists Iran wants a deal. He says negotiations are progressing. He urges restraint. Yet Iran’s behaviour looks rather less like a party seeking peace and more like a regime testing how much violence it can get away with while still enjoying the language of diplomacy.
Despite the ceasefire, there has been plenty of fire. Iran has attacked Gulf neighbours, threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted tankers, and most recently fired ballistic missiles towards Israel. This is not peace. It is war conducted under the cover of ceasefire language.
The most troubling element is Trump’s public pressure on Israel not to respond. That is an extraordinary demand. Israel’s doctrine of immediate and punitive response is not a luxury. It is the foundation of deterrence in a region where weakness is read as invitation. Israel has spent decades fighting Iran’s proxies — Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and others — precisely because Tehran prefers to kill through intermediaries. If Iran now attacks Israel directly, why would anyone expect Israel not to respond directly?
By publicly urging Israel to hold back, Trump handed Iran a diplomatic win. Tehran’s strategy has always been to create distance between Israel and its allies. A wedge between Washington and Jerusalem is not a minor achievement for the regime; it is a strategic prize.
So is this blatant stupidity? Perhaps. But perhaps not.
There is another possibility, although it requires a longer bow. Iran has used proxies for decades. It has fought through others while pretending to remain one step removed. Could the United States now be allowing Israel to play a similar role in reverse? Israel hits back. Iran pays a price. Meanwhile Washington continues to pose as the honest broker, maintaining pressure while pretending diplomacy still has room to work.
That may be too clever by half. It may simply be political theatre. It may be Trump trying to manage domestic pressure, oil markets, nervous Gulf states and an American public weary of war. But it is hard to believe he is about to abandon the US relationship with Israel, whatever the noise of the moment.
The danger is that Iran may believe it is winning the ceasefire. By firing, threatening, escalating and then watching Washington restrain Israel, Tehran may think it has found the formula: provoke, absorb limited retaliation, then demand diplomacy. If that is the game, it must be broken.
We should also remember that we are in the middle of the match, not at the final whistle. In war, there is always ebb and flow. Tactical confusion does not necessarily mean strategic defeat. A day’s headlines do not tell us the end of the story. The final play has not yet been made.
My own view remains unchanged. The objective should be regime change. Not another agreement. Not another temporary pause. Not another piece of paper Tehran can reinterpret, evade, or tear up when convenient.
The sanctions must remain. The blockade must remain. The pressure must increase, not soften. Negotiation has become theatre, and Tehran has used that theatre to buy time for decades.
Let Iran come back when it has no better options.
And if the regime escalates — as it has done by attacking neighbours, shipping and Israel — then the response should be simple and incremental: destroy more of the infrastructure that keeps the regime alive. Bit by bit. Strike the military assets. Strike the command systems. Strike the economic arteries.
A few serious hits on Kharg Island would do more than a thousand diplomatic statements. If Iran’s oil export capacity is crippled, the blockade almost becomes self-enforcing. No exports. No cash. No strategic patience. No ability to fund proxies while pretending to negotiate peace.
The West keeps pretending that Iran can be talked into moderation. But the Islamic Republic has shown us what it is. It survives through repression at home, terror abroad, deception in negotiation and escalation whenever it senses hesitation.
The ceasefire is not peace. It is a battlefield with better public relations.
The question now is whether Trump’s restraint of Israel is a mistake, a tactic, or part of a larger game. We cannot know yet. But we can know this: Iran must not be allowed to turn ceasefire violations into leverage, or diplomacy into a shield behind which it continues the war.
The regime should not be rewarded for escalation.
It should be made to regret it.





