Que sera

The election result just announced, the senate not yet settled, Shorten still doing victory laps, yet the carnival moves on. The hectic activity of weeks gone by; the constant intrusion of political ads, news-grabs of pollies in factories and shopping malls, visibility vests, handshakes, rats being cuddled, incessant analysis by the chatterati, robo-calls, election posters, are gradually fading into memory. We are back to the daily grind. The electorate, judged by this single voter, is 'excited-out'. There has been too much electioneering, over too long a period and we all have our breaking points.

Yet curiosity compels questions. The post election review and recriminations have commenced and will no doubt play out over the next few months.

• Was the double D worthwhile? 
• Should the campaign have been shorter? 
• What should have been done differently?
• How to respond to a scare campaign?

The Medi-scare campaign is lionized by the ALP and deplored by the LNP. Behind the scenes it is the the backroom boys, the campaign puppeteers, who will be evaluated in view of their results. But at front-of-house, the leaders must accept responsibility; Shorten the victor by smiles, and Turnbull tainted by under-performance.

Yet these questions are for the short term. More important are those of the future;

• Will this just-over-the-line result lead to a more careful attentive, therefore better government? 
• Will it survive the knife-edge of fortune to last its full term? 
• Will Turnbull have learned any lesson from his disastrous campaign? 
• Will the media take a more sober assessment of information provided by vested interests? 
• Will the media in the future question outright lies from their favoured politician ? 
• Will the promises/mandate by a government that barely gets across the line be respected by an already pugnacious senate? 
• Will the disposition of the cross benchers allow real budget repair? 
• Will Australia lose its AAA under a Liberal party trying to achieve the opposite? 
• Will the ALP vote in favor of economic policies it took to the people, if they are now presented by an LNP government?

Alas que sera, sera. What will be will be. Keep watching.

Inconvenient truths of Education spending

With the election still (too many) months away there is already so much excrement flying around one must keep their head down. Yet I cannot help raising some inconvenient facts that seem to be ignored in the political brouhaha.

Lets take just a look at education spending. Leave behind all 'opinions' and look at just those facts that are not disputed by any of the political parties or the commentariat.

The inconvenient facts are just these; - 

Inconvenient fact 1:

Australia has substantially increased its education spending in real terms over the last decade. Yet, in the same period, Educational outcomes have not improved but if anything deteriorated.

Inconvenient fact 2:

Across the world educational spending does not correlate with educational outcomes. (see Figure 1 below and the earlier post Education Spending scores an "F" giving some background.)

Given these inconvenient facts how can anyone justify more spending on education?

The LNP has just committed some $1.2B to the states for education, this comes after their more sensible proposition to limit spending at the 2014 budget. Still this is far less than the ALP's commitment of $4.5B over the forward estimates, amounting to ~ $37B over the next 10 years. 

Even if Australia had zero debt, and had money to burn, it would be a reckless politician who simply threw more money at a problem that has undoubtedly become worse despite more money. Yet our politicians are doing just that. Simply ridiculous! Clearly this is not their own money. Even a politician would not put more of their own money into an enterprise that generated less desirable outcomes by his so doing.

And yet our professional media, the 'last bastion of truth', is sitting mum. They are very busy, massaging, organizing and presenting election policies in the manner most convenient for their preferred political party. Yet they ignore the inconvenient truths. As if we were in the fairy tale and no one is willing to say it, "the emperor is naked"!

Spending more money on education is not the answer.

Pre-poll populist posturing

It is in the air and the air-waves. All manner of old and new policies are being dusted off, kites being prepared for flying, expert groups forming to pour water on ideas not yet released. Yes, an election is coming.

It is an unsavory time in modern democracies where we see the sausage being made. Honesty, responsibility and simple integrity are displaced by self interest, populism, and electoral advantage.

There are too many instances to list them all, but consider; -

• The Very Fast Train project - a recycled infrastructure project rolled out several times in the past but all analysis shows it is just as unjustifiable today as it was in all previous incarnations
• Bank bashing - It was not that long ago that the ALP rejected a Royal commission into the financial system, but given the likely focus on Union corruption in the coming battle, what better distraction than the banks. We may be bad, but look over here they are equally bad or perhaps even worse.
• Prominent Australians pushing barrels -  In the first instance claiming that Australia is a high taxing country and that a drop in Company tax would have no benefits, forget the economics books which say the contrary, In the second we have a panel declaring they want to pay more Tax. Try to sell that one to the battlers!
• ALP policy to eliminate Negative Gearing - forget that this was done before by the ALP with poor consequences , forget that it is patently unfair to those the ALP claims to support, and forget the negative consequences; higher rents, lower economic growth
• Terminating the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal - The government seems to have belatedly seen the light after the owner drivers were about to start picketing Canberra. 

Each of these issues have been driven by more than a soupcon of populism and posturing.

We are yet months before an election and already we have this nonsense beating its way to our door.

One can can only wonder what hodgepodge of irrational legislation will be wrought from this pre-poll populist posturing?

It is certainly no way to govern a country.