Against all odds: Trump's Peace Plan Brought Hostages Home

Despite the overwhelming odds and scepticism from every corner of the globe, the Trump 20-point peace plan for Gaza is holding — and Hamas is already completing the first phase. The handover of 20 live hostages from Hamas is a monumental moment in the complex and often treacherous path toward peace. In Israel, much of Gaza (the non-Hamas-loving Gazans), and much of the world, people are celebrating. This agreement — which seemed impossible just a few months ago — is a testament to the power of diplomacy, resolve, and strategic negotiation.

But how did we get here? How did a plan that seemed unachievable come together? What went on behind the scenes to achieve this stunning outcome?

The plan itself is intricate, with many traps. It’s easy to overlook the genius of placing the release of all hostages at the start of the agreement. After all, this was one of Israel’s primary war goals, and it’s a significant symbolic moment — one that demonstrates that Hamas, once a formidable force, has been defeated. Had Hamas maintained its hold on the hostages, it would have signalled that it still held one of its most significant weapons against Israel. Their willingness to release hostages suggests they no longer hold the upper hand.

This is where the mechanics behind the scenes come into play. Trump’s success in isolating Hamas from its key backers, particularly Iran, Hezbollah, and the Qataris, was critical to the agreement's success.

Hamas Isolated: The Key to the Agreement

To force Hamas to give up its leverage (the hostages) and agree to disarm, it had to be isolated from its backers. Let's break down how that happened:

1. Iran’s Toothless Support: After recent attacks, it’s clear that Iran has been exposed as largely toothless. While Iran has always been a key supporter of Hamas, its influence has significantly waned. Israel’s ability to dismantle Iran’s military influence in the region — particularly with Hezbollah's defeat — meant that Hamas no longer had a powerful shield protecting it.

2. Hezbollah’s Defeat: Hezbollah, another major backer of Hamas, was defeated by Israel. This weakened Hamas’s military position and further isolated them from their regional support network.

3. Qatar’s Duplicity: Qatar has long been a tricky player in the region. On the surface, Qatar has maintained a supportive stance toward both Hamas and Israel, all the while subtly preaching Islamism via Al Jazeera. For years, Qatar has hosted Hamas leaders, giving them a platform for their cause. Yet, Israel’s recent strikes against Hamas leaders in Qatar sent a strong message: Qatar itself was vulnerable. No amount of diplomatic gymnastics could shield Qatar from the reach of Israel — especially without the backing of the U.S.

4. Turkey’s Complicated Role: Turkey, a NATO member, has long been anti-Israel while trying to gain influence in Syria. Despite its NATO status, Turkey has hosted Hamas leaders, adding to the diplomatic complexity. However, Turkey’s desire for advanced weaponry — which they had been seeking from the U.S. — likely played a key role in moving them toward an agreement. Trump’s deals with Turkey, along with strategic arms offers, may have helped tip the scales.

How Trump Achieved This Isolation

How did Trump manage to pull all this off? The answer lies in hard-nosed diplomacy, coupled with a carrot-and-stick approach. No doubt, Trump’s deals offered tangible benefits to both Qatar and Turkey:

• Turkey: In exchange for cutting ties with Hamas, Turkey will likely receive access to advanced weaponry — something they had long coveted. This was a win-win scenario: Turkey’s national security concerns were addressed, while Hamas lost a significant sponsor.

• Qatar: Qatar’s situation was more delicate. It had long supported Hamas but also had a large U.S. military base and close ties to Washington. Trump likely recognised this leverage point and pushed Qatar into abandoning Hamas. But the final catalyst was Israel’s action against Hamas leaders in Qatar. This exposed Qatar’s vulnerability — it was no longer safe to host Hamas leaders. The combination of Israel’s bold move and Trump’s offer of protection likely convinced Qatar that it had to choose between its relationship with Hamas and its future security, especially with the U.S. as a more reliable partner.

Speculation on the Deal’s Success

We don’t have all the details, and it will be some time before the whole picture is revealed. But based on the pieces we can see, it’s clear that Trump’s diplomacy, in partnership with Israel’s strategic military actions, created the conditions for a breakthrough that few thought possible. The good guy/bad guy dynamic worked, with Israel playing the strong hand to expose vulnerabilities, and Trump providing the necessary assurances to key players like Qatar and Turkey.

The Trump 20-point peace plan could go down as one of the most surprising successes in modern diplomacy. While it’s not over yet, and there are many complexities to be worked out, what we’re seeing now — the release of hostages and the defeat of Hamas — is a testament to the effectiveness of bold, strategic moves.

Conclusion: A Monumental Achievement

At this stage, the peace deal has already achieved more than most would have ever thought possible. The release of hostages and the isolation of Hamas from its major supporters show the strength of this agreement. While we don’t know precisely how the subsequent phases will unfold, it’s clear that without Trump’s diplomatic efforts and Israel’s military prowess, this success would not have been possible.

Thank you, Mr Trump. Thank you, Israel.