Taiwan, China ...and Australia's Wishful Thinking

Here’s the uncomfortable truth Greg Sheridan just laid bare in The Australian: If China takes Taiwan by force, Australia is in deep trouble.

You’d think that would be front and centre in our national security debates, right?
Nope. Barely rates a mention. Why? Because the Albanese government still clings to the idea that we can dodge China's wrath while quietly leaning on the US to protect us, all without actually pulling our weight.

Let’s be clear: Washington isn’t asking us for an ironclad promise to fight if Taiwan is invaded. That would be absurd. Even the US won’t commit that far. But they are asking us to be serious — and we’re not.

We’ve supposedly been told these are the most dangerous strategic times since WWII. So what has the Albanese government done? Nothing real. Defence spending remains at 2% of GDP, unchanged since they took office. And after inflation, that actually means less buying power. Most of the new spending doesn’t kick in until well into their third term — if they even get one.

Meanwhile, China is building a war economy and telling its military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027. The US knows Australia’s defence posture is weak. Our subs and ships are years away. Our navy is small, old, and in poor shape. The audit reports confirm it.

And here’s the kicker: while refusing to commit to helping defend Taiwan, we’ve asked the US to hand over three of their precious nuclear submarines under the AUKUS deal. That takes some serious chutzpah. We're expecting the US to trust us with some of their best hardware, yet we can’t even bring ourselves to say we’d use it if Taiwan — and the whole regional order — were under attack. This is a lose-lose strategy. If we won’t make that commitment, China sees weakness, and the US sees a flaky partner. That makes it more likely China tries something, and more likely the US rethinks giving us the subs in the first place.

Sheridan points out what anyone with a memory should already know — we’ve been here before. In the 1930s, we ignored the looming Japanese threat. When war came, we had nothing. Our “ancient” navy got battered. And now we’re doing it again — same mistakes, new century.

If China takes Taiwan, it’s not just Taiwan that loses.
The entire Indo-Pacific order breaks down.
China will be able to threaten Japan, the Philippines, Guam, and the US. If the US falters or is forced to choose between fronts, we’re on our own. And we’re not ready.

We can’t pretend this threat doesn’t exist, and we can’t outsource our own security forever. If deterrence is going to work, we have to put more skin in the game.

Because if we don’t, history shows exactly how that ends. And it’s not pretty