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Tuesday, 17 June 2025

Iran's collapse frightens Russia

Israel has pulled off a spectacular pre-emptive assault on saber-rattling, terrorist-supporting, theocratic dictatorship. It has managed in just a few days to win dominance in the air, and is in the cleaning-up stages. This includes further attacks on nuclear-related sites, the IRGC assets, and some infrastructure. The latter is specifically to discourage Iran from using its ballistic missiles against civilian targets.

The war has not been all one-way. Iran showed a surprising lack of resistance to Israel's air attack. More on this later. On the other hand, it has launched multiple waves of drones and ballistic missiles against Israel's largest cities. Despite a highly efficient protective dome, destroying some 80-90% of such missiles, the remainder do penetrate, and we have seen substantial damage to buildings, and some casualties. The number of civilians who have lost their lives is relatively small, especially given the size of the onslaught. It was only possible due to Israel's defensive infrastructure, with shelters built in or near virtually every building.

Iran has targeted a few strategic sites, Israel's defence departments' building and an Oil Refinery in Haifa, but its primary targets have been residential areas. I expect that we will soon have the ICC issue warrants for the Iranian military leaders and the Ayatollah for such war crimes. And of course, the UK, Australia, Canada and Norway will put sanctions on these people. SO that will teach them. Of course, I don't really expect any such actions. But it does show the hypocrisy of the ICC and those virtue-signalling morally blind leaders of the UK, Canada, Norway, New Zealand and shamefully Australia.

While all freedom-loving people will applaud the success of Israel, and indeed thank them for taking the action against Iran. While Israel has done this as it faced an existential threat in Iran's moves to develop nuclear weapons after they had threatened Israel's destruction often enough. They had even boasted that Israel was a one bomb state. So they only had to make sure they managed to get one through, and Israel would be destroyed. So Israel had little choice, and they took the brave steps to protect their country. Yet, we have to accept that they have done us all a favour. The Islamists who rule, perhaps I will soon be saying ruled, but not yet, have threatened not only Israel but the West in general. A nuclear-armed Iran would have perpetuated a regime that had already supported terrorism around the world, through proxies, it had fought civil wars in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. It was a force for evil and should never have been accepted in the community of nations. The world could isolate such rogue states, but I will leave that for another day.

While the West celebrates Iran's now-likely fall, its allies, China & Russia, have a lesson to learn. Iran's inability to prevent Israel's air superiority despite anti-aircraft defence systems provided by Russia is sobering. While Russia did not supply many batteries of its best system, the SU-400, it had provided the SU-300. They turned out to be totally ineffective against Israel. To our knowledge, after 5 days, Israel has not lost a single aeroplane. That is remarkable.
So Russia's confidence in its ability to defend itself has taken a blow. Equally important, Iran was a major source of the drones that Russia had been using against Ukraine. That supply line has now been broken. Israel's success against Iran has dealt several blows to Russia.

Here is a video providing far more detail on the impact of Iran's failure on Russia.


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