Israel has , once again, had the courage of its convictions, attacking Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. This was high risk and fraught with uncertainty. It was done after extensive planning and executed with precision and professionalism. Given the task's difficulty, long distances, the likelihood of retaliation, and catering for massive barrages of ballistic missiles, the decision to act was not easy. It was made at what Israel thought was the latest time possible to avert an even worse scenario, Iran developing nuclear weapons that would have put Israel at existential risk.
While it would have preferred for the US to join in the attack, Israel decided that it could not wait and went in alone. It had advised Trump and his team, and unlike the Biden administration, Trump accepted Israel's decision and provided assistance in mitigating Iran's missile attack on Israeli cities.
This was just six days ago, and Israel's IDF's performance has been exemplary. Israel has achieved air supremacy; they have destroyed aerial defences, damaged many of the nuclear sites, and eliminated senior military and nuclear personnel. The Ayatollah has passed control to the next in charge, and he is hiding outside Tehran. Israel has freedom of the skies to destroy the IRGC military, communications, and energy infrastructure. Tehran is in chaos with long queues of citizens leaving the city.
On the other hand, Israel has suffered significant damage. Despite the Iron Dome's defence system's 90% success rate, 40 of the over 400 ballistic missiles sent by Iran have got through. They have inflicted damage to Tel-Aviv, Haifa and many other towns. Fatalities amount to some 30 people, but this number is increasing, and some 1000 Israelis have been wounded. These figures are far lower than expected, but the war is not yet over. Israel estimates they have destroyed some 40% of Iran's missile stocks.
There is, however, a serious issue. Israel's attack's key objective was to destroy Iran's nuclear ambitions. While Israel is in the process of destroying all the known sites except Fordow, it has limited capability to attack Fordow, which was built inside a mountain. Israel has limited options for the Fordow site. They lack the US's bunker-busting munitions that can penetrate some 200 feet underground. The US is needed to destroy Fordow.
As of this minute, Trump has been hesitating. His team has developed the plans for such an attack, but says he has not decided to give the go-ahead.
Why? While I understand that such decisions should not be made lightly, consider the alternative. If Fordow is left intact nothing is stopping Iran, no matter what regime takes over, from developing nuclear weapons in the future. If Iran did so, all Israel's efforts would be wasted, Trump's legacy would be shot, and Iran would again threaten the rest of the Middle East, Israel and the whole world with nuclear terrorism.
This decision is not difficult. If Israel could make the decision to attack, given all that it had to lose, why can't Trump make the decision when he has nothing to lose; it only requires dropping some bombs in undefended skies. It does not need troops on the ground. Sure, the US could face attacks on US bases worldwide, but that has always been the case.
I believe Trump will make the right decision, but he should do it now. As soon as the US destroys Fordow, it will destroy the IRGC's dreams and precipitate an end to the war. While Fordow is intact, it keeps alive Iran's dream of nuclear weapons.
Don't take my word for it. Here is a short video by Historian and political commentator Victor Davis Hanson on this topic.
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